To work out your equity or chance of winning when seeing the turn you multiply the number of outs by 2. Thus if we have 9 outs we will multiply that by 2 to get 18% equity. For example if we are on the turn and want to know our chance of hitting by the river this is the method we would use. Poker Equity On Turn And River One of the most reliable and fun platforms, Poker Equity On Turn And River PlayAmo online casino offers its players all of the best games, promotions, and benefits. Find the most popular and notorious games from the biggest providers in the industry, use the most user-friendly promotions and gifts and score some of the biggest payouts the casino industry has ever. As streets progress from pre-flop to flop, flop to turn, and turn to the river, equity changes until the final equity is achieved on the river. Equity can change a maximum of three times during a Texas Hold’em hand. Equity = Percentage Chance of Winning By The River How to win more money at poker. Playing the turn and the river after the flop requires different skills. Read the guide on poker river and learn how to make the most of the turn and the river. How much to buy-in for. How much to bet. Using the blinds to your advantage. If you have more than 50% equity in the hand, you want to get as much money in the pot as possible. It may be the case that the river brings another J or T giving our opponent the better hand with a full house, but this fact is irrelevant on the turn when we have 91% equity.

Did you ever wonder what is all the maths that professional poker players seem to be doing in their head? Well a lot of the time they will be counting outs to see what chance they have of winning.

Learning the basics of counting outs is another step on your journey to becoming a proficient poker player. But first what exactly are poker outs?

An out is any card that will improve your hand to better than that of your opponent. A common example is when you have four hearts in your hand and need the fifth heart to complete the flush (i.e. a flush draw) . If you count the number of hearts left in the deck (13 total minus the 4 in your hand = 9), you know how many outs you have and can work out the probabaility of winning the hand.

So counting outs is just very basic addition and multiplication.

Another simple example is when you have a flush draw such as A♥ K♥ of hearts on T♥ 7♥ 2♠ – you currently only have Ace high but any heart will give you a flush.

There are 9 hearts in total which will complete your draw however one of those hearts (2♥) may give your opponent a full house.

You can also hit an ace (A♠, A♣, A♦) or king (K♠, K♣, K♦) but these cards aren’t always guaranteed to give you the best hand. Generally speaking, you only count the outs which are sure to give you the best hand.

Table Of Contents

• Considerations and additional points when counting outs

Counting Outs: The Process

The first question you need to ask yourself when counting outs is ’How many cards in the deck will give me the hand I want? ‘

For example if you have a flush draw you will have 9 outs, if you have a gut shot you will have 4 outs, and with an opened ended straight draw you have 8 outs. A table below summarizes each draw with number of outs.

Now that you know how many outs you have you need to actually use that number There is no point in calculating your outs if we aren’t going to use it in our decision making process.

The easiest way to do this is using the rule of 2 and 4…

The rule of 2 and 4

Poker Equity On Turn And River Flow

This rule is pretty simple.

To work out your equity or chance of winning when seeing the turn you multiply the number of outs by 2. Thus if we have 9 outs we will multiply that by 2 to get 18% equity.

For example if we are on the turn and want to know our chance of hitting by the river this is the method we would use.

To estimate your equity or chance of winning when on the flop you multiply the number of outs by 4. Again, if we have 9 outs we will multiply that by 4 to get 36% equity. For example if we are on the flop and want to know our chance of hitting by the river.

The rule of 2 and 4 is only an estimation for our equity but it is usually accurate giving our equity to within a percentage point or two.

Part of counting your outs is understanding if you are ahead or behind (and by how much) so it is important to understand your opponent's range. For more information on ranges see thefollowing link.

When we know our equity we can make a decision whether our hand is worth continuing with.

This method is actually pretty accurate, particularly for low numbers of outs. See the table below where I compared equity for each situation using the 2 and 4 method and equilab.

The above table assumes that only the the primary draw goes towards our chances of winning. In reality, you will have slightly more equity than the rule of 2 and 4 suggests as you will often have equity from backdoor draws and overcards.

The overall process for counting outs and calculating equity

1. Determine what hand you have or could potentially have. If you are not sure of the hand rankings make sure you check them out
2. Count how many cards will give you that hand
3. Calculate your equity using the rule of 2 and 4
4. Determine if your hand is worth continuing vs a bet by weighting your equity vs pot odds.

Considerations and additional points when counting outs

Double Counting

One must always be careful not to double count outs. With a big draw such as a straight and flush draw we will have 9 outs to the flush and 8 outs to the straight. However, of the straight draw outs there will be two which also complete the flush; thus we must remove these double counted outs.

As a result we no longer have 17 outs (9 flush + 8 straight), we now have 15 outs (9 flush + 6 straight or 7 flush + 8 straight)

The Double gutter

One interesting hand type is the double gutter. A double gutter is as the name suggests a double gut shot.

An example is when you have JT on AQ8 board. Any 9 or K will make you a straight. A double gutter can sometimes be difficult to spot, even for experienced players.

However, that makes them more powerful than other draws, as when you hit your hand it is more disguised. A more disguised hand is more likely to get paid off when you hit.

The Monster Draw

Another interesting hand type is the ‘monster’ draw. These are draws with typically 12 or more outs such as a flush draw + straight draw, or a flush draw plus pair type hand.

These hands have so many outs that it almost never wrong to commit all your chips (given you have a reasonable stack size).

The most powerful of all these hand types is the open ended straight flush draw- J♥T♥ on Q♥9♥5♣.

With this hand, not only do you have a flush and a straight draw but you have two cards which are the absolute nuts – you cannot ever be beaten if you hit the K♥ or the 8♥. The importance of these 2 outs cannot be underestimated.

One issue with monster draws is that the rule and two and four begins to break down- the rule overestimates the equity. Although there will be very few situations where you will be folding a big draw.

All Outs Are Not Equal – Anti-outs

Poker Equity On Turn And River Stages

Another aspect we need to take into account is that not all outs are created equal. Outs to the nuts (the strongest hand possible) are always the most sought after type of outs; unfortunately we won’t always have outs to the nuts.

In most cases we will count our flush draw out as a normal out but it can complete a full house for our opponent.

Take for example our opponent has 77 on T♥7♥2♠: we will count the 2♥ as an out when we have a heart flush draw.

However, it will improve our opponent's hand at the same time as ours; unfortunately for us that will be to a full house which beats a flush.

We will lose a lot of money in this example.

A further example of drawing to not nutted outs is the ‘dummy’ or bottom end of the straight. When we have the bottom two cards of a four to a straight, for example 87 on T95 flop, we will be dominated by a hand such as KQ; if a jack hits we will both complete a straight but KQ will have the nut straight, beating our lower straight.

As such, drawing to the upper end of the straight is much more powerful. Although, it is not always possible to avoid drawing to the dummy end of the straight. However, take into account they are less powerful than other straight draws and hence you should be less likely to proceed with them vs betting action.

We can apply a similar thought process to overcard outs: AK on T52 board. If we hit our Ace or King on the turn we may not still have the best hand. Someone may have a set or two pair already or they might make two pair with the card which helps us.

Counting Outs Real Life Example:

How many outs do we have here?

Our opponent has 44 and we have 9♥8♥ on T♥5♣3♥7♠ board.

• We have two overcards to our opponent so that is 3 outs for the 9 and 3 outs for the 8 for a total of 6.
• We have a J and a 6 to complete our straight which is 4 each for a total of 8.
• We also have a flush draw of which there is 13 hearts in total. We have 2 of them hearts, our opponent has one and there are two on the board. That leaves 8 hearts.

That gives a total of 22 outs..

However we have double counted some of the outs. The 6♥ and the J♥ are counted in the flush and the straight counts we made.

We should only count them once meaning that we now have a total of 20 outs. Using the rule of 2 and 4, we know that we have approximately 40% equity since we are on the turn.

That means we should be calling almost any sized bet on this turn if we knew our opponent had a pair of 4's on the board.

Conclusion

Counting outs is not the most difficult of tasks a poker player must perform; however but it is one of the most useful. If you know how to count and think about your outs you are well of some of the poker population.

Counting outs allows you to understand how likely you are to win the hand. This allow you to decide whether you want to continue versus a bet or raise and hence make more informed decisions at the poker table.

The more likely to win the hand, the less likely you should be to fold.

Follow up this lesson with another on Pot Equity.

In my article on poker equity, I discussed how you should be betting for value to maximize your winnings when you feel you have the best hand. Normally, if you hold the best hand at one stage during the hand, it is typical that your hand stands the best chance of winning after all the cards have been dealt.

However, in some situations it is possible to hold an unmade hand like a draw, but still have the best chance of winning. Therefore in these situations you will have high equity in the pot, and it will make sense to bet for value even if your hand is not yet complete.

Drawing hand equity example 1.

You hold Q J on a flop of T 9 4.

If your opponent is betting heavily into you it is probable that do not hold the best hand, but nonetheless, you will have the most equity almost regardless of what you opponent holds.

Even if you know that you opponent has a strong hand like two pair with 9 4, your equity in the pot will be 52% despite the fact your opponent is the one with the made hand. The only hand that would have more equity in the pot than you at the time would be a set, but even in that particular situation you wouldn't be too far behind.

It is perfectly possible for strong drawing hands to have more equity than already made hands (like a pair).

Because you have such a monstrous drawing hand, there are a wide variety of cards that could help you to make a better hand that your opponent, such as a flush or a straight. Therefore you should bet for value even with a drawing hand in this situation, and look to get as much money into the pot as possible at this point.

Drawing hand equity example 2.

Now lets assume that in a similar hand where we hold Q J on a flop of T 9 4, there are now two players in the pot instead of one.

We know for a fact that Alice holds 9 4, and Bob holds T T. If we run these hands through an odds calculator, it shows that we are no longer the favorite to win the hand.

The following is the equity each player has in the hand:

We can see that that Bob with his set of Tens is currently in the lead, and is most likely to win the pot after the turn and river cards have been dealt. So, seeing as we are not favorite to win, should we check and fold to avoid putting in money with the hand that has the worst potential to win?

Not necessarily, as the presence of the third player in the hand is making a big difference to our chances of making money from this hand in the long run.

(This is where it gets a little mathsy…)

A little math.

If we all continue with our hands and continue to build the pot, each player will have invested money to create 1/3 of the final pot, or 33%. However, our equity in the pot is 45%, so we would be investing 33% to get on average a return of 45%. Therefore as you can see, if all 3 players move all in at this point we will be getting a good return on our money.

The fact that we are not favorite to win the hand is irrelevant, because our equity and odds from all 3 players moving in on the flop means that we will be winning money in the long run. If our percentage equity is greater than the percentage of the pot we have invested money in, we will be making a profitable play. Which in essence, is the same principle as pot odds.

What happens to our equity if one player folds?

The only problem that could arise at this point in the hand is if Alice (9 4) folds their hand without putting any chips into the pot. This would result in us now investing closer to 50% to the pot with only 45% equity. Therefore it would be a slightly losing play to move all in unless our opponent is giving us the correct pot odds to continue with the hand to try and complete our draw.

Drawing hand equity evaluation.

These two examples appear to be very confusing and mathematical, but you are not expected to be able to work out these figures and percentages whilst sitting down at the table. The above examples are merely shown to highlight the fact that you do not always need the current best hand to have good equity in the pot.

If you ever hold a monster of a draw like an open-ended straight and flush draw, it is likely that you will have very good equity in the pot and should be looking to invest as much as possible into it.

Both of these examples work very closely with pot odds to help determine whether or not you should call in certain situations. Therefore if you would like to know whether or not you should be folding, calling or raising in the above examples, you should take a look at the article on pot odds.

As a general rule, if you have more equity in the pot than you are going to invest in it, then you should be looking to bet and raise as much as possible.

Go back to the awesome Texas Hold'em Strategy.

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